10 things to expect from Prabowo Subianto’s presidency in Indonesia

Prabowo Subianto, a former army general with a checkered human rights record, will be sworn in as Indonesia’s new president on Sunday. 

Gibran Rakabuming Raka, the son of outgoing leader Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, will be inaugurated the same day as vice president, a post he was able to contest after a controversial ruling by a court then chaired by his uncle.

Indonesians and Southeast Asia observers have waited more than eight months to find out the Prabowo administration’s long-term plans and immediate moves.

But Prabowo has waited even longer – more than two decades – to ascend to the presidency of Southeast Asia’s largest nation.

Here are 10 things to expect under President Prabowo Subianto:

1. A “bloated” cabinet – Prabowo is likely to announce his cabinet on inauguration day, and it may have 46 ministers instead of the earlier 34, a leader of his Gerindra Party said. Expect it to be “bloated,” and inefficient, analysts have told BenarNews. An unfazed Prabowo said he needed a “fat” cabinet for a “united and strong” government, media reported.

2. Dwifungsi redux – With Prabowo’s past as a general and background as defense minister, analysts predict that more civil posts will be held by military members, as was the case under former President Suharto’s dwifungsi, or dual-function doctrine. The defense chief, like Prabowo in Jokowi’s cabinet currently, could well be a military person, wrote a Universitas Paramadina scholar.

3. Quid pro quo – or no?  Prabowo may appoint the popular Jokowi to a prominent role on Wantimpres (Presidential Advisory Council), which could help maintain stability and keep the outgoing leader’s supporters happy, said Trubus Rahardiansah, an analyst from Trisakti University. However, a “recent misstep” may have shifted political influence from Jokowi to Prabowo, said advisory firm Bower Group Asia.  

4. Wooing the holdout – PDI-P, which won the most parliamentary seats in February polls, said Thursday it would support Prabowo’s bloc. But the party didn’t make clear whether it was joining his ruling alliance, although it had promised to remain in the opposition. If it joins Prabowo’s coalition, parliament will have no opposition, analysts warned.

5. Wither democracy – An opposition is a Western concept and democracy is messy, Prabowo has said in recent months. Having served under the authoritarian Suharto, Prabowo “has never been a convinced democrat,” wrote John McCarthy, a former Australian diplomat. And with Jokowi leaving his successor “a flawed democracy, Prabowo will have more on his mind than to repair it.”

6. Expensive free lunch – Prabowo’s promised free school lunch program will start on Jan. 2, 2025, at about 800 billion rupiah ($53 million) per day, said Dadan Hindayana, head of Indonesia’s National Nutrition Agency. McCarthy said the plan will be expensive, while analyst Ali Sahab said Prabowo would need to balance policy ambitions with fiscal realities.

7. Muscular defense – Prabowo is likely to bolster military capacity and modernize defense equipment, said Erik Purnama Putra, of Indonesia Strategic and Defence Studies. The incoming president and ex-general is expected to leverage defense investments as part of a broader effort to stimulate economic growth, with the aim of reaching an ambitious 8% target, Erik added. 

8. Appetite for debt – Prabowo plans to “gradually” increase the debt-to-GDP ratio – that is, adding interest-bearing loans to current debt – his advisor said Oct. 7. But economist Ade Holis said any increase would strain fiscal resources, considering the 2025 budget allocates $35 billion, or 15.3% of total spending, just for interest payments, which “reduces funds available for other critical expenditures.” 

9. ‘Big brother’ – Prabowo can be expected to adopt a more assertive foreign policy, particularly in ASEAN, international relations expert Poltak Partogi Nainggolan said. That “would bolster Indonesia’s status as a founding member and respected ‘big brother’ in ASEAN,” he added. This shift could then influence Indonesia's stance on regional and international issues, other analysts said.

10. Chinese ‘wall’ – The next Indonesian president plans a China trip in November – his first foreign outing as president – to seek investors for a giant sea wall from Jakarta to Surabaya, Reuters reported his advisor as saying on Oct. 6.  Prabowo will engage with Western countries, yes, but may prioritize ties with Beijing, especially for economic cooperation, building on Jokowi’s “pragmatic approach,” said Mohamad Rosyidin, a Diponegoro University analyst.