Duterte drug-war admissions have pros and cons for his political future, observers say

Former Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte might have scored political points through bluntly and unapologetically defending his drug war at recent congressional hearings, amid a falling out with his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., observers said.  

The scenario has raised the stakes for midterm and presidential elections in the Philippines next year and in 2028, respectively, with the two heads of the country’s leading political clans backing various candidates, according to analysts.

Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) is closely monitoring the ex-president’s admissions that he greenlit the killings of thousands of suspected drug dealers and addicts during his administration (2016-22).

While analysts suggested that his testimony at hearings in October and mid-November before the Senate and the House of Representatives could be used against him at The Hague-based court, they said it also appeared to have “invigorated” Duterte’s supporters.

“Overall, I think his appearance in the hearings even benefitted him. It revived the Duterte base, the dormant political energy,” Aries Arugay, who chairs the political science department at the University of the Philippines Diliman, told BenarNews. 

Duterte’s fiercest critic, former Sen. Leila de Lima, agreed: “I think there’s always that strategy to appeal to the public.”

“That is why he finally agreed to appear after several invitations,” she told BenarNews.

Once formidable allies in the 2022 election, President Marcos and Duterte’s daughter, Vice President Sara Duterte, are also now openly feuding. The two are now set to support different senatorial candidates in the May 2025 midterm elections. 

Marcos is also reportedly supporting the Nograles clan, another political dynasty and a rival of the Dutertes, who are based in the former president’s southern stronghold of Davao city.

However, the Dutertes, particularly the ex-president, still enjoy public support. 

Joel Butuyan, a human rights lawyer who represents some drug war victims, said ordinary Filipinos continue to support Duterte’s drug war, even if many of the victims came from their communities.

“If you listen to the ground, the masses are saying they are disappointed with Marcos because of the peace and order situation and the high prices of goods,” Butuyan told BenarNews. 

“This is what the Marcos government should really seriously look into. We might end up imitating the United States – bringing back a controversial former president or the family of that former president in 2028,” he added. 

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Sara Duterte is seen as a top contender for the 2028 presidential race, according to some surveys and analysts.

“And if that happens, the Marcoses will see the kind of vengeance they never experienced even in 1986. The Dutertes will make sure of that,” Butuyan said. He was referring to a peaceful revolt 38 years ago that toppled the dictatorship of Ferdinand E. Marcos, the late father of the current president. 

Search for justice

But it’s not all rosy for Rodrigo Duterte.

The hearings will “definitely” have a significant impact on the ICC investigation, according to former Sen. De Lima and Butuyan, one of the Filipino lawyers authorized by the ICC to appear before the international tribunal. 

The ICC was monitoring the series of hearings in both the Senate and the House, the two said.

Retired police Col. Royina Garma, one of Duterte’s trusted cops, made some of the most damning allegations against Duterte in the hearings last month. 

Duterte was the mastermind of the killings, Garma alleged, saying the former president asked her to find a police officer capable of implementing Davao City’s drug war on a national scale – a claim that De Lima and Butuyan said were already in other witnesses’ signed affidavits submitted to the ICC. 

“This really bolsters Duterte’s direct connection to the drug war, this is the so-called missing link for the ICC,” De Lima said.

Duterte admitted to running his own anti-narcotics “death squad” when he previously served as mayor of southern Davao city.

While some of Duterte’s statements were not entirely new, Butuyan emphasized that these would still be useful for the ICC because they were made under oath in Congress. 

“I actually didn’t expect that he would admit the [existence of the] Davao Death Squad [DDS] because that’s actually very material in the ICC investigation,” Butuyan said. “The ICC is connecting the Davao years to the presidency years because of the DDS. So that's a very significant admission.”

Duterte also named Sen. Ronald dela Rosa – a former national police head who served as the chief implementor of drug war during his administration – and other police generals as members of his “death squad.” 

Butuyan said Duterte’s statements in Congress could “be introduced as evidence already because those are admissions against self-interest by an eventual accused.”

“So even if an accused can exercise his right to remain silent, he can refuse to testify. But he already made these statements under oath,” he said.

In the meantime, the Marcos administration has taken a stronger stance against Duterte on the ICC.

It said that the government would “feel obliged” to comply with the ICC if it pursued an arrest warrant against Duterte through Interpol.

The Department of Justice has also begun investigating Duterte for possible violations of international humanitarian law. 

If the probe gains traction, Duterte will also face domestic lawsuits for his drug war, analysts said.