EXPLAINED: Why Thai analysts are wary of China’s rising influence

In recent years, Thailand and China have expanded ties, particularly through an ambitious transcontinental railway project designed to connect the Indochina Peninsula to the Strait of Malacca.

The Bangkok-Nong Khai (Laos) high-speed rail initiative may be economically beneficial for both countries, with enhanced connectivity potentially boosting tourism, analysts say.

But they also fear Thailand will allow China to potentially use the project as a tool in its geopolitical strategy, were there to be a confrontation between Beijing and Washington.

The analysts have have historical precedent to fear such an outcome.

During the World War II-era, Thailand, which was called Siam, employed a “Bend With The Wind” strategy to avoid direct colonization by Imperial Japan, but was ultimately compelled to join forces with it under unequal terms – a brief but painful period of domination.

Today, experts like Panitan Wattanayagorn, caution that history could repeat itself, but with China in place of Japan. 

“In wartime, the Belt and Road Initiative and other key infrastructure in Asia will be prime targets for superpowers, particularly the United States and its allies,” said Panitan, a former security adviser to the Prayuth Cha-no-cha administration. The Belt and Road Initiative is China's globe-scanning infrastructure program.

Should conflict arise between China and the U.S., Thailand may be forced to pick sides and defend its infrastructure, potentially siding with China to protect Belt and Road projects, said Panitan.

In such a scenario, he said, the Bangkok-Nong Khai high-speed railway and other Chinese investments could be repurposed for military use, drawing Thailand deeper into geopolitical tensions.

Since the 2014 military coup led by former Army chief Prayuth, Thailand, which was once a key non-NATO ally of the U.S., has increasingly shifted its political and economic alignment towards China. 

Thailand has grown more dependent on Chinese-made weaponry, including tanks and submarines, marking a significant departure from its historical alignment with the U.S. 

The coup strained the country’s nearly two-century-old ties with the U.S., and pushed the kingdom closer to the Asian superpower both economically and politically.

The current civilian government, which succeeded Prayuth’s administration, has also embraced a pro-China stance.

These deepening ties have created economic challenges, as Chinese goods – from produce to electric vehicles – flood Thai markets, increasing the trade deficit.

In 2023, bilateral trade between Thailand and China reached U.S. $118.7 billion, leaving Thailand with a $28.1 billion deficit for the year.

By mid-2024, the deficit surged nearly 15% year-on-year to $20 billion, driven by a 7.12% rise in Chinese imports.

While the U.S. remains Thailand’s largest export market, Chinese imports dominate the domestic market, with Chinese e-commerce platforms providing direct access to consumers at lower prices.

This influx of Chinese goods has severely impacted Thailand’s small- and medium-sized enterprises.

Nearly 700 factories shut down in the first half of 2024, 86% more than the same period a year earlier, as domestic industries struggle to compete with cheaper Chinese products, according to Thailand’s Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking.

The economic benefits of infrastructure projects like the Bangkok-Nong Khai high-speed railway are evident, but historical fears of external dominance linger.

During World War II, more than 90,000 Asian civilians and 16,000 Western prisoners of war perished from hard labor, starvation, and disease while being forced to build the Imperial Japanese “Death Railway.”  The strategic railway, constructed by Japan in 1942, connected Ratchaburi in Thailand to Myanmar. 

When Japan launched an amphibious assault on Thailand in 1941, just a day after the attack on Pearl Harbor, Thai forces resisted for only a few hours before conceding to Japanese demands. Despite this, Thailand’s ambassador to the U.S. delayed delivering a declaration of war, sparing the country from post-war repercussions once Japan surrendered.

In light of this precedent, experts stress that Thailand should be “fully aware” of China’s military projection – ability to send troops outside its borders and sustain them – in Southeast Asia. 

Dulyapak Preecharush, an associate professor of Asian Studies at Thammasat University in Bangkok, said last month that China’s military projection would include Cambodia’s military buildup and its support of the narcotics-dependent ethnic Wa militia force in northeast Myanmar.

Cambodia and Thailand have also yet to solve a maritime border dispute in a gas-rich part of the Gulf of Thailand, and Cambodia’s claim to Koh Kood, a tourist resort island off southeast Thailand, could become a flash point. 

Thailand needs to weigh its big-power options carefully, especially if it did not have a policy to accommodate India and the U.S. to balance China, Dulyapak said.

“We have to discuss with China more and more,” he said.

“But if we lean toward the U.S. and other superpowers we have to calculate the consequences.” 

Thailand’s newly appointed prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, told parliament last week that she would turn the tide on trade while maintaining a peaceful foreign policy.

“The government will support and protect the interests of SMEs from foreign unfair trade practices, especially from online platforms,” she said, as she referred to small and medium enterprises.

She promised to promote “consistent and clear policy, working with countries to actively promote peace and common prosperity.”

Paetongtarn also vowed to tackle online scam centers, which are allegedly operated by Chinese investors, and are proliferating in Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos.

Nontarat Phaicharoen of BenarNews in Bangkok contributed to this report.

Radio Free Asia is an online news organization affiliated with BenarNews.