Thai election uncertainty stokes fears of unrest
2023.06.16
Bangkok and Chiang Mai

Uncertainty over the formation of Thailand’s new government is stoking anxiety among the public and business sector alike, with some Thais concerned about a return to political turmoil that has periodically roiled the country over the past decade.
A month has passed since the May 14 elections in which opposition parties trounced the pro-royalist military establishment, but Thailand’s Election Commission is yet to officially certify the result.
Despite winning a clear mandate at the ballot box, the progressive Move Forward Party, which has formed an eight-party 313-seat alliance, has been unable to establish a coalition government or nominate party leader Pita Limjaroenrat as prime minister.
While Thailand waits, politicians and business groups are growing more worried about the negative impact on the economy and society.
The Thai Chamber of Commerce and Board of Trade has said if a new government was not in place by August, gross domestic product for this financial year could be 1.5% less than it had earlier projected.
The country’s central bank also said this week that delays posed a risk for the economy and would likely slow investment in key infrastructure projects.
“The uncertainty around the formation of the government is causing investment to stall,” Srettha Thavisin, a leader of the Pheu Thai, which is the second largest party in the alliance, said on Wednesday. “Investors want to see a government established quickly.”
Pita has called on the Election Commission to speed up certification of the vote, which, among other things, would allow his government to revitalize Thailand’s small- and medium-sized enterprises.
‘Let democracy work’
The commission has a maximum of 60 days post-election to confirm representatives, but secretary-general Sawang Boonmee said the results could not be announced until at least 95% of 400 constituency-based seats were confirmed.
Thai voters directly elected 400 members in the 500-seat parliament. The remaining 100 seats – so-called partly-list seats – are allocated to different parties according to their share of the nationwide vote. Both houses of Parliament, including 250 senators appointed by the junta, will later elect the prime minister.
Even when the commission certifies the election, it is far from certain that opposition parties will be able to take power, because the Move Forward alliance lacks an outright majority to govern in the 750-seat bicameral legislature.

Many Thais are concerned that Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-o-cha and military-aligned parties are looking to cling onto power any way they can.
“People will take to the streets if the Thai elites render the election meaningless,” said Arnon Nampa, a lawyer and political activist in Bangkok.
“Many are worried – and I am too – but such political expression is difficult to avoid,” he said, urging the authorities to “let democracy work.”
Supon Singkham, who is employed at the Northern Region Industrial Estate in Lamphun province, said he wanted the new coalition government to fulfill its election promises.
“I'm hoping for a successful implementation of the minimum wage policy and an improved economy,” he said. “We haven’t had bonuses for several years now. We can wait a bit longer, but we want the party that won the election to form the government.”
Coup fears loom
Whether the military-backed establishment will accept the opposition mandate has been hotly debated in Thailand since before the vote.
Thailand's military has staged 13 coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932 and the country has been rocked by clashes between generals and pro-democracy reformists over the years.
The most recent coup was led in 2014 by Prayuth, who returned to power following the 2019 general election. Analysts say another military intervention is not out of the question.
The Election Commission is investigating Pita as to whether he was knowingly unfit to register as a candidate because of his ownership of shares in a media firm iTV, which is prohibited under election rules. His supporters say the move is politically motivated.

Dr. Thouchanok Sattayavinit, a professor in the faculty of political science and law at Burapha University, said Thailand could again be at a turning point.
“The process to prevent the democratic faction from forming the government is increasingly apparent,” she said.
“The case of the iTV shareholding could be a critical factor for us to see the dissatisfaction of the public. If the verdict is perceived as unjust, protests are certain to arise. As for the chance of another coup, it can’t be denied.”
She said the military, however, would likely proceed with caution and view it as a last resort after all other methods to curb the democratic path have been exhausted.
For many, the delay in announcing the results was perceived as a tactic to buy time, opening the door for manipulation of the election outcome, said Somchai Preechasilpakul, an associate professor from the law faculty at Chiang Mai University.
“This creates uncertainty around the political transition, which is not beneficial for any party in Thai society,” Somchai said.
First-time voter Wanwisa Imkunt had high hopes for the election, but has been disheartened by numerous “strange” events, such as voting irregularities in some sub-districts and issues over Pita’s iTV shares.
“All these make us feel that those in power don't want to lose their positions – and they are keeping us waiting until they can regain control of the game,” the 21-year-old said.