Thaksin’s advisory role could boost southern Thai peace talks: Analysts

UPDATED at 1 p.m. U.S. Eastern time on 2025-03-07

Former Thai leader Thaksin Shinawatra’s new role as an adviser to ASEAN chair Malaysia could potentially buoy peace talks in Thailand’s restive southern border provinces, security analysts say.

Negotiations between Bangkok and Malay Muslim rebels have shown no public signs of resuming in the more than six months since Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, became Thailand’s prime minister. 

But Thaksin’s recent appointment by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim as a special adviser to Malaysia during its 2025 chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations could change that, according to experts interviewed by BenarNews.     

“The appointment of Thaksin as adviser to the ASEAN chair might help bring Brunei and Indonesia into participating in the peace process,” Panitan Wattanayagorn, a longtime advisor to Thai governments on security matters, told BenarNews. 

For years, Kuala Lumpur has been brokering different iterations of talks aimed at ending the long-running separatist insurgency in Thailand’s mainly Malay Muslim southern border region, but they have either fizzled or failed to make any breakthroughs.  

“Thaksin might use his special relationship with Anwar to solve problems through back channels, addressing issues that can’t be resolved through open processes,” said Srisompob Jitpiromsri, director of Deep South Watch, an NGO that tracks insurgency-related violence in the border region. 

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Last week, Anwar made a similar prediction to Malaysian MPs about Thaksin’s potential impact on ending the conflict.

“It helps, even though there were some controversies being raised. He recently went to southern Thailand to apologize for the Tak Bai incident and gave assurance that he will cooperate with Malaysia to find peace,” Anwar said.

Thaksin’s apology

The Malaysian PM was referring to a 2004 massacre that took place in the Deep South under Thaksin’s watch as Thailand’s prime minister.

Eighty-five people were killed by Thai security forces but not a single official has ever been charged over the Tak Bai massacre – perhaps the most infamous incident in the long-running insurgency that re-ignited in 2004.

In his capacity as an adviser to ASEAN, Thaksin traveled to the Deep South on Feb. 23. During his visit, he issued an apology in response to a question about the massacre.

“[M]istakes can happen in governance. If I made any mistakes that were unsatisfactory, I apologize so that we can turn back and solve problems together. I don’t want small misunderstandings to remain,” Thaksin said. As prime minister, he was overthrown in a military coup in 2006, and returned to Thailand in 2023 after years in self-exile abroad. 

The incident occurred on Oct. 25, 2004, when security forces violently dispersed protesters from in front of the police station in Tak Bai, a district of Narathiwat province. 

Most of the victims died in military trucks, where they were bound and stacked like logs. The 20-year statute of limitations passed last year without any charges being filed.

“Apologizing is better than saying nothing at all, because significant events related to the southern border situation occurred while he was prime minister. Not saying anything might be more damaging,” Panitan said.

Other observers and human rights advocates said Thaksin’s apology lacked sufficient weight given the scale of the atrocity.

“It seemed like he was saying that officers might make mistakes. He may have wanted to be cautious about being blamed for past problems, but he apologized only for minor frictions,” Jitpiromsri, of Deep South Watch, told BenarNews.

“In reality, because of the feelings of people in the area regarding the Krue Se and Tak Bai incidents, where many people died with high levels of violence, at a minimum Thaksin should take responsibility for this part and express it with stronger words,” he said.

Since MPs elected Paetongtarn to succeed Srettha Thavisin as PM in August 2024, little has been done to foster peace in the border region, which she visited in January. No formal talks have been held. 

“The violence has increased significantly. Since the statute of limitations expired for the Tak Bai case, expectations have risen,” Pornpen Khongkachonkiet, director of the Cross Cultural Foundation, a Thai NGO, told BenarNews.

“When they do nothing, it’s like neglecting an important duty.” 

Nine people have been killed in insurgency-related violence since the start of 2025.

In January, two police officers were killed and seven others were injured in a pair of roadside bombings in Narathiwat province. Later that month, Thai military forces killed four suspected insurgents in Yala province. 

In February, two police officers were shot and killed, and a roadside bomb blast killed a police officer and injured three others in Nong Chik, a district of Pattani province.

And on March 6, police said that an explosion in Tambon Sa Teng, in Yala, caused several injuries. Meanwhile, in Pattani, perpetrators set fire to several CCTV cameras, police said. 

Vacant seat

Paetongtarn’s government has still not replaced the chief Thai negotiator in the peace talks since the post was vacated last October. Chatchai Bangchuad served in the role for eleven months until he was promoted that month to chief of Thailand’s National Security Council.

But Panitan said the council had performed poorly with regards to the peace talks, to date.

“The government must urgently enhance the NSC’s capabilities, as they have been inadequate so far. They might begin by adding both domestic and international advisers to formulate a winning strategy,” he said. “The dialogue can be postponed, but it’s necessary to exchange new information, control the situation in the area and successfully bring people to the table.”

Phumtham Wechayachai, Thailand’s deputy prime minister and defense minister, described Thaksin’s recent visit to the Deep South as a sign that progress with peace talks could be coming this year.

“I think we will have a better direction and next year we will find a way to end this. As the person responsible for the southern region, we should be able to find a solution,” Phumtham told reporters on Feb. 27.

“I confirm that the dialogue process still exists, but I cannot specify the plans in the immediate future,” he said. 

Jon Preechawong in Bangkok and Farhana Farush in Kuala Lumpur contributed to this report.

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to correct how Thaksin’s remarks were presented in the article.